• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises

1

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

2

Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 

3

The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Financestimulus

Stimulus update: How the election will shape the next aid package

By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
and
Anne Sraders
Anne Sraders
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
and
Anne Sraders
Anne Sraders
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 3, 2020, 1:03 PM ET

Months of stimulus talks among the White House, Senate Republicans, and the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives have yet to produce a deal.

The cure for the stalled stimulus negotiations? Good old American democracy. The outcome of the Tuesday presidential election will be what ultimately determines how much stimulus passes and when it will come.

While both parties support items like a second round of $1,200 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and more aid for small businesses, each side has held back from making a deal in hopes of getting a package more to their liking. Democrats want more money for state and local government funding, and Republicans would like to see the overall size of the package under $2 trillion. But once voters determine control of the White House and Senate, it’s expected the scope and timing of the next deal will become much clearer.

With the clock ticking on more stimulus after the election, Fortune examined what a stimulus deal might look like under the three most likely election scenarios.

A ‘Blue Wave’

If Democrats win back the White House and Senate, they’ll likely pass a massive stimulus package soon after the inauguration, which Biden said is his plan. The polls are pointing to that outcome: FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 89% chance of winning, and gives the Democratic party a 75% chance of taking the Senate chamber. Control of the latter might not be decided until January if one or both of the Georgia Senate seats goes into a runoff—which happens if none of the candidates reach 50%.

In that Blue Wave scenario, Mark Zandi from Moody’s Analytics believes another deal will be passed “soon after” Biden’s inauguration in January. Zandi thinks “lawmakers will quickly agree to spend close to another $2 trillion to shore up the economy,” he wrote in a note Monday, bigger than the White House’s recent $1.8 trillion offer but moderately below the Democrats’ previous $2.2 trillion price tag. It would likely include money for items like state and local governments, enhanced unemployment benefits, and a national comprehensive testing plan.

What’s more, Zandi believes there may be a second stimulus deal passed by next summer in the event of a Democratic sweep: He sees that deal also costing around $2 trillion, focused on getting the U.S. back to full employment with support for government spending projects like infrastructure.

Regardless of the specifics, UBS Global Wealth Management senior economist Brian Rose recently told Fortune, “If the Democrats win, they’ll get stimulus through, and not only that, they’ll get a big package.” Democrats may have to pass the bill through reconciliation, he says, or by getting rid of the filibuster if remaining Republicans “play hardball,” pushing the deal into next year (provided they have the seats).

Biden win, GOP Senate

But if Biden wins and Republicans retain the Senate, the stimulus package deal they strike would likely be smaller than the $1.8 trillion the White House is offering.

Moody’s Zandi believes in a Biden White House and divided Congress scenario, “there will be enough political will, given the struggling economy, for lawmakers to pass a $1.5 trillion deficit-financed rescue package by February,” he wrote. However, he argues, Senate Republicans will “forestall a larger package or any additional fiscal support after that.”

UBS’s Rose also believes that even if Biden has to deal with a red Senate, there is a scenario where “they can find enough votes to at least not have the stimulus package filibustered,” he recently told Fortune. For any deal to get done this year, regardless of who wins the election, the legislation would have to be passed during a lame duck session, which occurs after a November election but before the new Congress sits in the new year.

Trump win, GOP Senate

If Biden wins, a broad stimulus deal is unlikely to pass in the Republican-controlled Senate between the election and Jan. 20 inauguration. But if Trump wins, his allies in the Senate are likely to pass an economic aid package before the start of his second term.

However, Trump might not be able to get Senate Republicans to agree to the $1.8 trillion the White House offered House Democrats. And if Senate Republicans—who are uneasy with going above $1 trillion—don’t pony up more, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi might not be on board. (FiveThirtyEight gives the Democratic party a 97% chance of retaining the House).

In Zandi’s view, lawmakers would “likely agree to a deficit-financed support package next February, with Senate Republicans being the brake on a larger deal.” There is a chance for additional fiscal legislation next summer, even if Trump wins, though Trump would likely trade more tax cuts for an increase in infrastructure spending, Zandi wrote.

About the Authors
By Lance LambertFormer Real Estate Editor
Twitter icon

Lance Lambert is a former Fortune editor who contributes to the Fortune Analytics newsletter.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Anne Sraders
By Anne Sraders
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Markets are jittery as the global oil crisis bleeds into a global debt selloff, while Trump weighs new military options on Iran
EnergyOil
Markets are jittery as the global oil crisis bleeds into a global debt selloff, while Trump weighs new military options on Iran
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
34 minutes ago
Gundlach says it’s ‘just not possible’ for the Fed to cut rates
EconomyFederal Reserve
Gundlach says it’s ‘just not possible’ for the Fed to cut rates
By Jordan Fitzgerald, Sam Kim and BloombergMay 17, 2026
3 hours ago
Supply shocks weren’t random. They were strategic—and should be seen as ‘supply coercion’ instead, former Fed official says 
Economysupply chains
Supply shocks weren’t random. They were strategic—and should be seen as ‘supply coercion’ instead, former Fed official says 
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
3 hours ago
U.S. says China to buy $17 billion of agricultural goods annually
EconomyChina
U.S. says China to buy $17 billion of agricultural goods annually
By Yash Roy and BloombergMay 17, 2026
5 hours ago
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
EconomyDebt
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
By Jason MaMay 17, 2026
6 hours ago
BlackRock private credit fund’s valuations are probed by DOJ
InvestingDepartment of Justice
BlackRock private credit fund’s valuations are probed by DOJ
By Olivia Fishlow, Ava Benny-Morrison and BloombergMay 17, 2026
8 hours ago

Most Popular

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
AI
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI
By Jake AngeloMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 
Politics
Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can 'imagine a future without him' — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets 
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
Politics
The Bezos family just donated $100 million to help achieve one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s top campaign promises
By Jake AngeloMay 12, 2026
5 days ago
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
Innovation
SpaceX heads into a record-shattering IPO with the 'deepest moat that exists today' as investors vow to 'never bet against Elon'
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a 'non-linear' price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
Energy
Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a 'non-linear' price spike and panic buying, analysts warn
By Jason MaMay 16, 2026
1 day ago
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
Success
'No one was coming to save me': How Reese Witherspoon built a $900 million company from a problem Hollywood wouldn't fix
By Sydney LakeMay 17, 2026
12 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.