The latest monthly consumer price index showed that the average price of a dozen Grade A eggs in U.S. cities reached $4.95 in January, eclipsing the previous record of $4.82 set two years earlier and more than double the low of $2.04 that was recorded in August 2023.

The spike in egg prices was the biggest since the nation’s last bird flu outbreak in 2015 and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the total increase in food costs last month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Of course, that is only the nationwide average. A carton of eggs can cost $10 or more in some places. And specialized varieties, such as organic and cage-free eggs, are even more expensive.

“We do use eggs a little less often now. You know, because of the price,” said Jon Florey as he surveyed his options in the egg case at Encinal Market in Alameda, California. “I was going to make a quiche that I like to make and it’s about six eggs, so I figured I’d do something else.”

When are egg prices expected to go down?

Relief is not expected any time soon. Egg prices typically spike around Easter due to high holiday demand. And the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted last month that egg prices were likely to go up 20% this year.

Even if shoppers can afford eggs, they may have difficulty finding them at times. Some grocers are having trouble keeping their shelves stocked, and customers are encountering surcharges and limits on how many cartons they can buy at a time.

Encinal Market owner Joe Trimble said he has a hard time getting all the eggs he orders from his suppliers, so most of the time his shelves are only about 25% full.

“It’s something you don’t think about until you look at the shelf and it’s nearly empty,” Trimble said. Eggs are “just expected to be there in the same way you expect there to be milk. It’s a key item to have in a grocery store because people don’t go out looking for something else to eat on a Saturday morning. They want it. They want to have some scrambled eggs or over-easy eggs on a Saturday morning.”

How bad is the bird flu outbreak?

The main reason that eggs are more expensive is the bird flu outbreak. When the virus is found on a farm, the entire flock is killed to limit the spread of disease. Because massive egg farms may have millions of birds, just one outbreak may put a dent in the egg supply. Nearly 158 million birds have been slaughtered overall since the outbreak began.

The Agriculture Department says more than 23 million birds were slaughtered last month and more than 18 million were killed in December to limit the spread of the bird flu virus. Those numbers include turkeys and chickens raised for meat, but the vast majority of them were egg-laying chickens.

And when there is an outbreak on a farm, it often takes several months to dispose of the carcasses, sanitize the barns and raise new birds until they are old enough to start producing eggs, so the effects linger.

Bird flu cases often spike in the spring and fall when wild birds are migrating because they are the main source of the virus, but cases can pop up any time of year. The virus has also spread to cattle and other species, and dozens of people — mostly farmworkers taking care of ill animals — have been sickened.

But health officials say the threat to human health remains low and eggs and poultry are safe to eat because sick animals aren’t allowed into the food supply. Plus, properly cooking meat and eggs to at least 165 degrees Fahrenheit kills any virus, and pasteurization neutralizes bird flu in milk.

What else is driving egg prices up?

Egg farmers also face higher feed, fuel and labor costs these days because of inflation. Plus, farmers are investing more in biosecurity measures to try to protect their birds.

Ten states have passed laws allowing the sale of eggs only from cage-free environments. The supply of those eggs is tighter and focused in certain regions, so the effect on prices can be magnified when outbreaks hit cage-free egg farms.

Many of the egg farms with recent outbreaks were cage-free farms in California. Cage-free egg laws have already gone into effect in California, Massachusetts, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Colorado and Michigan.

Total demand for eggs is also up significantly in recent years. Consumers are buying more eggs, and the growth of all-day breakfast restaurants is adding to demand.

CoBank analyst Brian Earnest said the current cost of eggs could discourage some buying, which would ease the demand pressure but might not have a noticeable effect. It will likely take months for egg producers to fill the gaps in supply.

“As consumers continue to stock up on eggs, supplies at the store level will remain tight, and with Easter right around the corner, that could prolong the tighter supplies,” Earnest said.

While prices remain elevated, producers of baked goods and other food items that rely on eggs as a main ingredient will have to decide how much to increase prices or reduce production, he said.