- Investor confidence has shifted from optimism to uncertainty as President Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies continue to roil markets, with recent threats against China and Europe causing sharp declines in major indices. Analysts warn that even Trump’s unfulfilled tariff threats are impacting consumer behavior and business investments, signaling a volatile economic outlook for the foreseeable future.
Before Donald Trump called off his tariffs on Mexico and Canada in the eleventh hour last month, Wall Street was chastised by banking insiders for not taking his threat seriously enough.
With analysts waking up this morning to find the Trump bump has come to an abrupt halt—seemingly replaced with a Trump slump—it seems clear investors are determined not to make the same mistake again.
After Trump’s inauguration, the White House was buoyed by the S&P 500 bouncing to a five-year high, but in the past 24 hours alone, the gains made under the new Oval Office occupant have evaporated—down 1.6% at the time of writing.
In Asia, markets are on fire after President Trump confirmed that China is once again facing a 10% tariff hike, on top of an identical sanction he placed on imports from the nation when he first came into office.
Since January 20, this trend has quickly emerged from the White House, with analysts scrambling to figure out which risks to price in and at what point.
In the past 24 hours alone, President Trump has also teased tariffs on the EU while seemingly giving the UK a pass on similar.
Critics might argue that Trump is shooting from the hip, needlessly upsetting markets over promises he has no plans to keep.
But a precedent has now been set with China that the White House will follow through if its demands aren’t met, and economists are warning that a slew of executive orders on tariffs are not random but indicative of a much wider tactic that will become a regular feature of the coming Trump term.
“Everyone needs to buckle up, because the President is just getting started”
This week Goldman Sachs published a master file on its outlook for tariffs and the impact on the economy. It outlined the tariffs previously confirmed for China and the aluminum and steel industries alone are “roughly equivalent to all of the tariff hikes from the first Trump administration.”
“Everyone needs to buckle up, because the President is just getting started [on tariffs] and what lies ahead will likely be even more unpredictable than during his first term,” Jeff Gerrish, the president’s former deputy U.S. trade representative for Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Industrial Competitiveness added in his interview with Goldman.
Gerrish’s prediction was correct: In the mere days between publishing the 31-page debrief and the time of writing, President Trump came out in favor of a 25% tariff on Europe, as well as the aforementioned China hike.
Goldman had already upped its inflation call as a result—an increase of 4pp to core inflation and an end result of 2.5% by the end of the year—though this may tick higher on the back of recent events.
As a result, Goldman added in the note seen by Fortune that it expects the Fed to slow the pace of balance sheet runoff in May as opposed to June, with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from January showing tariffs were already weighing on any hopes of a rate cut.
“While markets have begun to react to the trade developments, they are still underpricing deep tariff risks,” Goldman noted.
Its outlook was echoed by Gerrish, who worked under Trump between 2018 and 2020, and said his former boss “is no doubt looking to go bold and broad with respect to tariffs to address the overall problem of the global trade imbalance,” be it through a universal or country-by-country tariff strategy.
Shifting sands
After the jubilant welcome of the hoped-for regulation-lite president, it seems the outlook in the markets has shifted to further uncertainty.
Keen not to price in every off-the-cuff remark or Truth Social post, but aware that President Trump is the man with the power to move markets, analysts are establishing a new reality of shifting sands.
As Jim Reid, research strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note seen by Fortune this morning: “Markets were in a stressed mood … yesterday, with renewed tariff threats from President Trump in addition to a sharp tech sell-off that saw the Magnificent 7 (-3.03%) post its worst day of 2025 so far as Nvidia slumped -8.48% after its earnings the previous evening.
“This marked a sixth consecutive decline for the Mag-7, the first time that’s happened since April last year, and it now leaves the index -13.56% beneath its December peak.”
As Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS points out, now even Trump’s least-viable threats are having major ramifications for markets: “Crying “wolf” on tariffs has economic implications, even if taxes never appear. There is some evidence of consumers buying earlier out of fear of tariffs (perhaps more Democrat consumers than Republican).
“Firms may raise prices ahead of tariffs. Because businesses invest in an uncertain future, increasing uncertainty affects investment risks.”
Professor Jeremy Siegel, Emeritus Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, echoed Donovan’s stance.
In his commentary for financial services firm WisdomTree, where he is a senior economist, Professor Siegel noted earlier this week: “While immediate action on tariffs isn’t expected until late March or early April, uncertainty is already being felt in earnings calls, as companies factor in potential disruptions to supply chains and costs.”
